It has been another week of pulling one's hair out. Donald Trump delivered a 108-minute State of the Union address to celebrate himself, failed to mention the Epstein files once, and instead attacked Iran to distract from current political issues. I will hardly shed a tear for Ali Khamenei's regime, even if Trump's Iran policy once again only "solves" a problem that he created himself by withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Iran.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin once again threatened the use of nuclear weapons and continued to twist the narrative of his war of aggression: He now claims the war was necessary to preempt a supposed attack by Ukraine.
But the world keeps turning. Almost silently, new free trade zones are being created: After 25 years of negotiations, the EU suddenly agreed to the Mercosur free trade agreement. An agreement was also reached with India after 20 years. Countries like Australia, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea are moving closer to the EU, further isolating the US.
Currently, a lot is happening in the EU to reduce dependence on the USA. Baden-Württemberg has finally turned its back on Windows and Office 365, and other German states will hopefully follow soon. The Austrian Armed Forces have already taken this step. France is replacing Microsoft Teams and Zoom with its own providers for security reasons. Anyone currently looking to buy storage and RAM for their PC will be surprised by exploding prices – a side effect of massive EU investments in its own internet infrastructure and server capacities.
Quite incidentally, a Dutch company has just achieved a breakthrough that gives Europe full control over the technological future of the USA: ASML has increased the power output of its chip manufacturing machines from 600 to 1,000 watts. According to Reuters, this means that up to 50% more chips can be produced by 2030. Europe is the only region on this planet that possesses this technology. Trump has just imposed 15% tariffs on everything Europe exports to the USA. At the same time, however, every advanced chip manufactured in America depends entirely on machines that only one European company can build – and that company has just made its machines significantly more powerful.
What ASML has just announced is not merely a technical achievement. It is Europe's way of securing permanent influence over American technology for the next decade. Every smartphone, every computer, every AI system, and every military weapon uses semiconductors – tiny chips with billions of microscopic circuits. Manufacturing advanced chips requires printing patterns smaller than a virus onto silicon wafers. The only way to do this is with extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. ASML is the only company in the world that manufactures these EUV machines. It is not just the leader; it is the only one. According to Tom’s Hardware, ASML controls over 90% of advanced lithography and 100% of EUV technology. Each machine costs between 200 and 400 million dollars. Intel, the leading American chipmaker, cannot produce advanced chips without them. TSMC and Taiwan cannot produce chips without them. Samsung and Korea cannot produce chips without them. ASML is the mother of all supply bottlenecks – and it is European.
Trump increased global tariffs to 15% after the Supreme Court declared his previous tariff regime illegal. Europe responded by freezing the massive trade agreement between the US and the EU. Now ASML announces that it has increased chip production capacity by 50% – exactly at the moment when America needs these machines more than ever for AI development and semiconductor independence.
The USA cannot replicate ASML's technology within any reasonable timeframe. According to Investment Monitor, the machines are so complex that no single person fully understands how they actually work. They require components from 800 global suppliers, most of whom are European.
Europe could respond by completely halting ASML exports to the USA, extending delivery times, or simply increasing prices for machines that America desperately needs. Each ASML EUV machine already costs 200 to 400 million dollars. What’s a 15 percent surcharge when you are the only provider?
Historical precedents show what happens when critical technologies like these are turned into a geopolitical weapon. During the Cold War, the US restricted the export of semiconductors to the Soviet Union through the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls. The restrictions crippled the Soviet Union's technological development for decades.
Trump raised tariffs to pressure Europe, but Europe controls the machines the US needs for AI dominance and semiconductor independence. America has no alternative source of supply and cannot develop the technology itself within a decade – likely even longer.
A typical Trumpian own goal. This is what happens when you elevate a pathologically egomaniacal person to the most important office in the land.
