As the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran already appears to be crumbling, the recent summit in Armenia provides yet another example of Trump’s foreign policy failure. Little remains of "Making America Great Again"; instead, the US President is currently gambling away his most significant leverage over his European allies.
Coupled with a Supreme Court defeat regarding his arbitrary tariffs and the looming loss of the Congressional majority next year, Trump finds himself with his back against the wall, both domestically and internationally.
Ukraine’s Emancipation
Perhaps the most consequential break is visible in Ukraine policy. During his recent appearance at a European summit, President Zelenskyy addressed his remarks exclusively to Europe—the US played no role in his speech. Kyiv is systematically decoupling itself from Washington’s security guarantees.
For Europe, this means: if America no longer acts as the indispensable protector, Brussels has little to no reason left to bow to Trump’s demands. This new dynamic is shifting the balance of power across nearly all transatlantic conflict zones.
The End of Tariff Blackmail
Only last year, Europe accepted Trump’s massive tariffs almost without complaint, fearing that retaliation might jeopardize vital US support for Ukraine. However, by 2026, the tide has turned:
- Personal Influence: The circle of heads of state who still had a direct line to Trump has almost entirely vanished.
- Strategic Focus: Zelenskyy has realized that flattering Trump yields no strategic advantage. His focus has shifted entirely toward European autonomy.
- The Iran Factor: Due to Trump’s fixation on the Iran conflict, the US has been demoted in the eyes of Europe—from an "invisible ally" to a mere "arms dealer."
Since Washington’s arms shipments are increasingly diverted toward the Middle East and aid to Ukraine has dried up, Trump’s threat to freeze support has become hollow. Europe is rearming on its own; while it still values US hardware, it is no longer begging for it.
European Freedom of Action
As this geopolitical leverage fades, the EU is suddenly gaining the political breathing room to push back against economic bullying. Why should Europe continue to tolerate damaging tariffs on its core industries in exchange for security guarantees that are no longer guaranteed?
The "Coalition of the Willing" is driving strategic autonomy forward. European leaders have concluded they can no longer outsource their security to the unpredictable American election cycle. In this context, Ukraine is becoming the central partner of a reorganized, resilient Europe.
Kyiv’s New Strategy: Independence through Innovation
In the face of dwindling US funding, Zelenskyy has built his defense strategy on three pillars:
- Domestic Defense Power: Ukraine is transforming from a recipient of aid into a global leader in low-cost innovation (FPV, naval, and long-range drones). With a volume of roughly $55 billion, procurement is moving increasingly in-house.
- Integration instead of Alms: Europe is direct-funding weapons and investing in Ukraine as a "testing ground" for modern warfare. A partnership of equals is emerging: capital in exchange for data and combat experience.
- Autonomous Air Defense: Through mobile fire groups and interceptor drones, Ukraine is reducing its reliance on expensive US batteries. The message is clear: "We will defend ourselves."
2027 Outlook: The End of the "Dealmaker"
Looking one year ahead: The Republicans have lost the Congress, and the ruling against Trump’s tariff policy severely limits his room for maneuver. Meanwhile, Ukraine and its European allies have found ways to hold their own without Washington and to strike at Russia’s lucrative oil exports.
In this scenario, the self-proclaimed "Master of the Art of the Deal" would have driven his own concept into absurdity. Within just two years, Trump would have moved from a position of absolute strength to a position where he holds almost no leverage over Europe.
International politics is heading toward an era where Washington is no longer the undisputed center of power.
